College Football Best Bet Friday Night (11/22/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | November 22, 2024 | 4:40 P.M. CST
Best Bet Tonight: Temple @ UTSA
Tonight we’re going to look to UTSA in the exotics market. We’re going to look at their TEAM TOTAL over tonight. UTSA has been playing at a breakneck pace the last 7 games of the season, averaging 24.1 seconds per play (15th fastest in country). So they are going to be attempting to go as fast as possible. And that tempo is not just smoke and mirrors, as UTSA has been one of the best SCORING teams in the country in conference play as well. And, they’ve only gotten better and better in terms of offensive efficiency, as well as overall offensive output. In fact, the last 4 games they have put up 48, 44, 45, & 38. Additionally, they’ve been much better offensively at HOME, which is where they’re playing tonight. They are averaging 43.3 PPG in HOME CONFERENCE games this season, which is first in the conference. The lowest scoring output they’ve had in a home conference game was 38.
Additionally, they are going up against a Temple defense that is one of the worst in the country. They rank outside the top 100 in almost every meaningful metric: Schedule Adjusted Efficiency, EPA/Play Allowed, Success Rate, Havok created, and more. They are just horrific defensively. Now, they did play better defensively in their last game against FAU, but FAU was one of the worst offensive teams in the country, and they had given up on their coach, Tom Herman, who got fired at the conclusion of the game. Temple’s defense the last 3 road games gave up 52, 56, and 29 (45+ PPG).
Now I would normally look to UTSA here, but it’s just not in my nature to lay 17 points. Also I don’t trust the UTSA Defense. So by taking the TT Over, instead of laying the 17, even if Temple is able to score here, we can still get there. I think UTSA hangs 42+ as they are trying to get Bowl Eligible on senior night in San Antonio. Give me the RUNNERS to go OVER the 35
Official Play: UTSA TEAM TOTAL OVER 35
Play Rating: 2-Star
