Calculation Errors & Contradictions: The CFB Playoff Picture Through Week 10
Author: Dylan Lieck | Nov. 7, 2023 (6:38 P.M. CST)
The new, updated version of the CFB Playoffs will be released today, and with only 4 weeks of the regular season remaining, these actually do matter. So let’s take a look and see who is likely to be in the top 4, as well as who deserves to be moved to a different position.
#1 Ohio State Buckeyes
Let’s start off with the team currently ranked #1 in the country: the Ohio State Buckeyes. Now, the Buckeyes might be #1 in the CFB Rankings, but I find it hard to believe that anyone truly believes they ARE the best team. Looking at their season thus far, the Buckeyes do have rank 1st in the country in Strength of Record (S.O.R.), yet they rank just 20th in Strength of Schedule (S.O.S.). The two essentially differ with SOS being the difficulty of one’s actual schedule, and SOR being the performance/outcomes of that team against that schedule. It actually surprised me that Ohio State was ranked that highly in SOR, but when you look at it, they do have 2 wins against Top 10, undefeated teams (at the time they were top 10 and undefeated). They defeated #9 Notre Dame on the road earlier in the year, and they followed it up by taking down #7 Penn State at home three weeks later.
However when you look at the Notre Dame win, anyone who watched that game could clearly see that Ohio State was thoroughly outplayed for 59 minutes. The Post-Game Win Expectancy, which measures the likelihood of a team winning the game based on all the plays, stats, and outcomes of each play in the game, gave Ohio State a FOUR PERCENT CHANCE to beat Notre Dame. That means they were INCREDIBLY fortunate to come out of that game with a win. In fact, it was one of the luckier wins for any team all season. The second big win for the Buckeyes came against a very overrated Penn State team, who was ranked in the top 10, purely do to a lack of early season competition. Still the Buckeyes in no way ran away and hid from the Nittany Lions. In fact, OSU was the beneficiary of a number of fortunate calls that aided them in building an early lead. A Kyle McCord fumble was returned for a Touchdown early in the Penn State game, and a phantom Defensive Hold negated that Nittany Lion Touchdown. The call by the officials was a critical error, as OSU went on to score on that drive, giving them a 7 point lead, 10-3, rather than trailing by 7.
Additionally, I believe both of these wins are going to look significantly less impressive by the end of the year. The Buckeyes win over #9 ND at the time looked like a big time win against a top 10 team. But the Fighting Irish have since dropped 2 more games to #13 Louisville and unranked Clemson (who was 4-4 going into that game). Notre Dame could likely win out, but still that win looked a lot better when ND was an undefeated top 10 team in the country, compared to how it looks now. Penn State also will likely look less impressive at the end of the season. Right now, the Nittany Lions only loos is that game at OSU, but if they were to get smashed by #3 Michigan this week (which is likely), that win is going to look significantly less impressive. Add all of these things up and throw in the fact that the Big 10 is pretty much the weakest it’s EVER been this season, with the exception of the 3 at the top. Therefore, besides the ND win, Ohio State will only have that PSU win to lean on in conference, with not a single other Big 10 team being ranked.
Essentially to me, the Buckeyes season comes down to the game at Michigan. In my opinion, there is no way that a 1-Loss Ohio State team, who does not even get to a Big 10 Title game (which they won’t if they lose to Michigan) gets into the CFB Playoffs, barring some MASSIVE shakeups at the top. There are just too many good teams this year, and it looks like we already have the possibility to have a one-loss Conference Champ miss the playoffs. I don’t think any of this matters because Michigan will stomp Ohio State by 14+ and end their CFB Playoff hopes, but for now we all have to live with the #1 ranked team being the Ohio State Buckeyes, even if they are probably not even one of the best FIVE teams in the country
#2 Georgia Bull Dogs
The Bull Dogs are another team that are ranked too high, in my opinion, as I believe they are the third best team in the country at the moment. The loss of Brock Bowers can’t be stated enough, as he is their most important offensive player (and it isn’t even close). Carson Beck has been servicable, maybe even better than that at times. But he’s not been asked to do all that much. Their schedule has been quite easy, and their toughest games of the season have all come at home.
That won’t change this week, as they get to face the #10 Ole Miss Rebels (8-1) in Athens this Saturday. The Dogs got to face Kentucky at home earlier in the season, who at the time was ranked 20th in the country & was the first AP Top 25 Ranked Team that UGA had faced all season. Last week, the Bull Dogs faced a pretty good #12 Missouri team (7-1 entering game, now 7-2), for their toughest test to date. Of course, once again the Bull Dogs got to do so at home. Now they get the highest ranked opponent they will take on all season at home AGAIN in Ole Miss this weekend. It’s quite frustrating for anyone who is tired of Georgia. Georgia’s Strength of Schedule this season? 90th. That’s like taking the Kansas City Chiefs off their Super Bowl win last year, and giving them the easiest schedule in the league TIMES FIVE. It’s actually wild how easy this year shook out for the dogs, and in a season where they had the most vulnrabilities, on both sides of the ball, that they’ve had in quite some while.
Following the Ole Miss game, the Dogs will have to face ONE ranked team on the road, as they will travel to Knoxville to take on the Volunteers of Tennessee (currently #17 in CFB Rankings). That will be their lone road trip to a ranked team all season. The most interesting thing about Georgia is that because the Dogs have faced such an easy schedule, and because they won’t have the resume that they’ve had in years past, nor the dominance they’ve shown in the regular season the past two years, they could legitimately go undefeated through this regular season & lose in the SEC Title and MISS the CFB Playoffs. That’s right: I do believe that is a possibility
Think about it: If the Bull Dogs win out in the regular season, then lose to Alabama in the SEC Title game, there’s a zero percent chance that Georgia could get in over Alabama. Well, then if Texas wins out & wins the Big 12 Championship game, there’s almost zero argument for putting Alabama in over Texas, as the Horns have the head-to-head win AT ALABAMA earlier this season. So, almost certainly you’d have to put the Longhorns in FIRST (of those three teams). And Alabama would have to be second with the neutral field win over Georgia in the most recent game. So now Georgia is sitting there hoping that a number of other teams lose in their conference title game just to have a shot to get in. Now I don’t think this is going to happen, as I believe Georgia on a neutral field is 10-14 points better than Alabama even in this down year. However, it is interesting to think about.
#3 Michigan Wolverines
#3 Michigan is by far the best team in the country so far this season, and I don’t believe it’s even remotely close. I do understand that they have yet to play a living breathing sole yet. Every team they’ve faced though, they’ve won in absolutely dominant fashion. I mean think about how rare that is. Every single week in CFB we have tons of upsets, and even more upset scares, yet Michigan has won every single game by 25+ points. They have a historic scoring margin in college football so far this year, and their defense has been absolutely elite. Last week was the first time all season that Big Blue gave up more than 10 points, and it took a garbage time hail marry against some of the Michigan walk-ons, to be able to get that number over 10.
Regardless, Michigan is a pretty easy team to break down for the rankings. First off, it’s clear to me that they should be ranked #1, assuming you are ranking teams in terms of: (1) eye test, (2) level of dominance in games, (3) on field performance, (4) strength of schedule, (5) best wins, worst losses. The problem is that the committee has decided that as of right now, strength of “record” is the most important statistic to look at, and they are not deciding anything based on what the teams look like on the field (with the exception of Oregon).
Secondly, Michigan’s whole season basically comes down to two games. The first is this Saturday as they take on the Penn State Nittany Lions. This is going to really tell us whether I am right about Michigan. If the Wolverines go into Happy Valley, during the famous “White Out”, and stomp the living shit out of Penn State the way they’ve done to everyone else, then we know this team IS the favorite to win the National Title. However, if they go in and struggle with Penn State, then it might be time for me (and Michigan fans) to pump the breaks on this group. I’m almost positive Michigan stomps PSU, but we will have to wait and see. Regardless, though, of the style of the outcome, as long as Michigan wins the game, their season will then come down to ONE game. And it’s essentially a de-facto CFB Quarterfinal between the Wolverines and the Buckeyes, with the winner almost certainly going to the CFB Playoffs (and probably as the number one overall seed). I’m also very interested to see how the Michigan players respond to the growing issue of sign stealing allegations in the program, especially as the Wolverines continue to win, and the limelight gets shined more & more on their program.
#4 Florida State Seminoles
Florida State, thus far this season, I believe should be the 2nd ranked team in the country. They had a great non-conference win against LSU to open the season (albeit that win doesn’t look as good now). They have followed that up by basically running through the ACC ever since. Now, the ACC isn’t going to be mistaken for the 2010 SEC, however I actually do think in totality, the ACC is better Big 10 this year.
That said, this feels like FSU is going to have to go undefeated to get into the CFB Playoffs. They’ve been sitting at #4 for multiple weeks now, and that’s exactly where the CFB Playoff Committee placed them once again (where they will likely be tonight as well). So if they were to win out, win the ACC title game against a top 10-15 ranked Louisville team that should go into that title game with one loss, the Seminoles would almost certainly be in the playoffs.
That all said, if FSU were to somehow lose a game prior to the ACC title game (Miami and Florida are their two most difficult games left), I don’t think the Seminoles get in. I also don’t think they would get in if they were to go undefeated and lose in the ACC Title game, even if the game was very close. The problem is, if they do lose to someone in the ACC, then you very likely have either Washington or Oregon with 1-loss as the Pac-12 Champ. The committee has already shown that they’re very high on Oregon, and an undefeated Washington WOULD get in over a one-loss FSU if that were to occur. Additionally, even if the Pac-12 somehow worked itself out where Washington lost a regular season game, then beat Oregon in the Pac-12 Title game, the Seminoles would still have to worry about a 1-loss Texas team. And if you lose in the ACC to anyone else remaining on that schedule, there’s almost no chance they get in over a one-loss Texas team who is a conference champion.
So the path is pretty clear for FSU in my opinion: Win out and win your conference title game. If you can do that, you are 100% in the CFB Playoffs, and if not, 90% you don’t get in. There’s nothing more you can ask for at this point in the season than to control your own destiny, and that is exactly what the Seminoles have. I am rooting for the Seminoles in one sense, because I picked them to go to the playoffs at the start of the season, and I like Jordan Travis and Keon Coleman, but I also kind of want them to lose to make the path for my Texas Longhorns a bit easier.
#5 Washington Huskies
I’ve been a vocal opponent of Washington ever since watching the Oregon game a month ago. It was pretty clear to anyone watching that game that the Ducks were the better team. Unfortuantely for Oregon, they have a coach with a brain the size of a sunflower seed, who decided to continusouly go for it on fourth down in bad situations, and it eventually cost them the game.
Washington’s QB, Michael Pennix Jr., has been in the Heisman talk all season long, and from a statistical standpoint he 100% deserves to be. However, if you watch the kid play, there is clearly something off. He is a lefty, and I don’t care what anyone says, it’s really difficult to be successful as a QB when you are a lefty at this level. Whenever there is pressure in his face he tends to make poor decisions. At times he can be very inaccurate & streaky with his passes. When he’s able to get the ball out quick, to open receivers, and play within the confines of the Kalen DeBoer offense, he looks good. When he’s forced to hold onto the ball longer than he wants, and move out of the pocket, or handle pressure, he really struggles to with accuracy. Overall, I think Pennix is a good collegiate QB, and he’s been put into a fantastic system that makes him look a lot better than he is. Unfortuantely for Washington I just don’t see this team as a CFB playoff team, and the QB is part of that reason why.
The other reason why is the Washington defense. After being pretty good through the first five weeks, the Huskies defense has fallen off a cliff. With the exception of the Arizona State game, which features an ASU offense that is in the bottom 100 in the country, the Huskies have allowed 32.7 Points Per Game over their past 5 games. They’ve allowed at least 32 in 4 of those 5, including 42 in their most recent outing against the USC Trojans. Now the offense has been good enough for them to avoid the big upset, but once again there’s just too many holes in this defense to be CFB Playoff caliber. The only LEGITIMATE good team they’ve played was Oregon and they got to play them at home; it took a number of very fortunate breaks to win.
Lastly, they’ve been playing with fire for a while here. They played Arizona very close the week before the Oregon game (an Arizona team that I believe if they played NOW they would lose). They were very fortuante to catch Arizona on their schedule where they did, because that team is playing some really good football right now. They then barely escaped the Oregon Ducks, as we’ve already discussed. However, it’s after that game that things really got dicey. The Huskies were actually TRAILING to the Arizona State Sun Devils late in the game, as ASU was going into score (already up 7-6). Instead of kicking a FG to take a 4 point lead, Kenny Dillingham (ASU Head Coach) decided to go for it, and a pick six flipped that game on its head. I’m not sure the Huskies even escape a BAD Arizona State team if it weren’t for that pick six. They followed up that performance against ASU with another tight win over Stanford. Following a really costly Michael Pennix Jr. interception late in the fourth, the Cardinal had a chance to drive and win the game. It came down to a fourth down, and Stanford had a man wide open & the kid likely would’ve scored, however the pass was dropped. Another incredible lucky bounce for the Huskies. Then last week, they barely escape a game where they trailed much of the early going, on their way to giving up 42 points.
I don’t think this Washington team is bad in any way, and at the beginning of the year I actually was rooting for them, thinking it would be great to see a new team like that be in the mix. I’m glad they are, and Kalen DeBoer has truly done an outstanding job in Seattle. But I just don’t think this Washington team is a real contender. I think against the other top 7-8 teams in the country, they are a rightful underdog on a neutral field to all of them.
Washington’s path is simple: Win out, you’re in. Lose any game at any time, you’re not going to the playoffs. Simple game for the Huskies, and we’ll see if they can keep the dream season alive this week against a decent Utah team.
#6 Oregon Ducks
This is the ranking that I just do not understand. Look I get it: people like Oregon. Oregon is fun to watch, they play fast tempo, they score tons of points. They also had the great fortune of everyone watching that matchup in which they choked the game away to Washington a month ago in Seattle. Any football person who watched that game came away from it thinking Oregon was the better team and Washington stole one. Because of that, when Oregon starting playing better FOLLOWING the loss to the Huskies, everyone started jumping on the bandwagon. But I’m going to tell you why it is NOT warranted.
Look, as good as Oregon has played in the past few weeks, there is no LOGICAL explanation as to how the Ducks are ranked ahead of the Texas Longhorns. In fact there were even some people stating this week that Oregon had a chance to JUMP Washington in the CFB Playoff Rankings. I mean that’s just wild to me. At that point it’s like, okay what are we doing here? Why even play the games? If we’re just going to pick who we like and who we THINK is the best team, rather than what the numbers and reality actually tell us. Even if I believe that Oregon IS in fact better than Washington, you could never convince me in a million years to put them ahead of the Huskies; the Ducks LOST to Washington, plain and simple.
Secondly, let’s compare #6 Oregon to #7 Texas. Oregon’s non-conference schedule: Portland State (FCS Team), Texas Tech (55th), Hawaii (126th). That is one of the easiest non-conference schedules in the country. When you look at how they performed in those easy games, yes they blew out the two teams who were horrific. However, the one game they played in the non-conference against a team with a pulse? At Texas Tech. How did that one go? The Ducks were VERY close to losing that game outright. The final score shows an 8-point win for Oregon, however the Ducks were out-gained on a Yards Per Play basis by the Red Raiders. Texas Tech also out rushed Oregon, had 6 more first downs, and converted a higher percentage on third and fourth down as well. The difference in the game? TURNOVERS. The Red Raiders had FOUR of the, (a fumble + 3 picks). In fact the Ducks were so bad defensively in that game, the Red Raiders had 27 points through 3 quarters, and Oregon was TRAILING by NINE POINTS entering the fourth quarter. It took a massive late game rally from Oregon just to hang on and win the game. What was especially fortunate for the Ducks was a late pick six (which drove Tech +7 backers absolutely NUTS). Tech was driving to score late, with a chance to beat Oregon. They just needed a Field Goal, and they were about 30 yards from having a legitimate attempt, when Tyler Shough (Tech’s original starting QB) threw his 3rd pick of the game and the Ducks returned it to the house. This REALLY helps the Ducks case. An eight point win against a bad Tech team looks a whole lot better than a 1 point win (or of course a loss outright).
But it’s not just that game. Who have the Ducks beaten this year? We know they lost to the best team they faced in Washington. Here are ALL of the Ducks wins this year: Portland State, Texas Tech, Hawaii, Colorado, Stanford, Washington State, Utah, & Cal. Do you know how many of those teams have a winning record? ONE. Utah is the ONLY team Oregon has beaten that currently has a winning record. The teams that the Ducks have beaten this year have a combined record of 32-41 (43.8% win percentage). That’s ridiculous. How in the world the committee has Oregon ranked ahead of the Longhorns is absolutely beyond me. The Longhorns, who went on the road to Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and knocked off the Tide on the road in the second week of the season, and also have THREE TOTAL WINS over ranked teams (Bama, Kansas, K-State), are behind the team who’s got ONE ranked win against Utah. And it was a Utah team who’s been starting a third string QB all year. It’s absolutely nuts to me that the committee is given the power to just make things up.
#7 Texas Longhorns
I basically just touched on the Longhorns, but I’ll go a little more in depth here. If you are a Longhorn fan, I think you’d feel pretty good about Texas’ chances to reach the College Football Playoff if they were to win out and win the Big 12 Title. And that would absolutely be logical, and it would make plenty of sense. However, unfortunately there should be some worry. As mentioned above, Oregon is currently ranked 6th over Texas, who is sitting 7th. This is despite the fact that the Longhorns have a SIGNIFICANTLY better resume than the Ducks. Why is that such a bad thing? Well let’s look at the remaining schedule of both teams.
Texas’ final 3 games: @ TCU, @ Iowa State, vs. Texas Tech + Big 12 Title Game (OU, Kansas, or OKST)
Oregon’s final 3 games: vs. #20 USC, @ Arizona State, vs. #16 Oregon State + Pac-12 Title Game (Washington)
So looking at this, with Oregon ranked where they are (above Texas), despite their weak resume thus far, how does Texas jump Oregon? Logically, I don’t think they can if Oregon wins out. Because that schedule clearly shows that if both Texas and Oregon win out, the Ducks would be the one’s significantly improving their resume. While the Longhorns would face only one ranked team (in the Big 12 Title Game), the Ducks will face three (although USC likely won’t finish in the top 25). To me, the committee has basically said, sorry Texas we like Oregon better, and it doesn’t matter that you guys challenged yourself in the early season. The Alabama win has absolutely no meaning to us, and we’re going to credit Oregon for beating the wheels off Utah with a backup QB. It’s actually baffling to me that they’ve done this.
The hope for Texas is two-fold: they definitely are rooting for Washington and Oregon to lose a game in the regular season, that way they have a rooting interest (for the other to lose) in the Pac 12 Title game. They also very much are hoping that Florida State gets beat before the end of the season, or at the very least in the ACC title game to Louisville. The one thing they’ve got going for them is the win over Alabama, so the more Alabama wins, the better that win looks.
#8 Alabama Crimson Tide
If Texas is in a tough spot, Alabama’s spot is even tougher. Why? Because of the loss at home to Texas early in the year. If Alabama wins out and wins the SEC Title, and Texas wins out and wins the Big 12 Title, it will be almost impossible for the CFB Playoff Committee to justify putting Bama in over Texas. Now, could it happen? Absolutely. The NCAA has proven that they are Alabama lovers, and this wouldn’t be the first time that Texas was screwed out of a shot to play for a National Title (See 2008). But one would think that they wouldn’t want the backlash from leaving a premier program out of the mix when they’ve clearly earned it.
If Texas were to lose any game the rest of this season, then in my opinion Alabama would have a great shot to get in IF THEY WIN OUT. And that’s the key. Nothing else matters if they can’t beat Georgia in the SEC Title game. Now as unimpressive as UGA has looked this year, you won’t ever convince me that they aren’t at least 10-14 points better than this version of Alabama on a neutral field. Bama is unlikely to lose the rest of the regular season, but it would be a surprise to myself, as well as the rest of the country if they were to start off they way they did this season (remember the South Florida game?) and then get to the CFB Playoff. I don’t think it’s going to happen, but the fact that we’re in Week 11 and it’s still a possibility is just so annoying. We’re all tired of Bama, and we’re getting there on Georgia too. We need some fresh blood back up at the top of CFB.
Additional Teams:
There are a few other teams that have an outside shot if they were to win out to get in. All of those teams have one loss, and although they have a chance, that chance is very slim. Those teams are:
#9 Ole Miss: Team with the best chance to get in outside of the top 8. How? Basically they’d have to beat Georgia in Athens this week, and win out their final two games. If they did that, they’d finish 11-1, however they’d still miss the SEC Title. They’d then need Georgia to beat Bama in the SEC Title game (in a close game). This would put Bama out (2-losses), and it would put Ole Miss and Georgia both with 1-loss. Georgia would have the SEC Title, but Ole Miss would have a head-to-head win IN ATHENS over Georgia, in the final 3 weeks of the season. This is the way that things get the most messy in CFB. I think it’s an absolute long shot (less than 2% chance, and that might even be too high).
#10 Penn State: Very likely out of it even if they win out. They’d have to pretty much demolish Michigan, and have Michigan demolish Ohio State. Even then I’m not sure if that would get them in the Big 10 Title game, which would be there only hope
#11 Louisville: Their loss is too bad (@ Pittsburgh). They would need a million things to break their way to get in.
Conclusion:
Every year we’ve had the CFB 4-Team Playoff, one or two teams feels like they got left out, however it’s never really been all that egregious where we have teams who have head-to-head wins over other teams get left out over the team they beat. However, this is the final year until we transition to the 12-team playoff system, and it just feels like we’re in for the first ever true cluster fudge we’ve had with this system. An outcome where 7 or 8 teams have a legit shot to get in, and it feels like 3-4 legitimate, one-loss, contenders get left out. There’s even a scenario where an undefeated Power 5 Conference Champ gets left out! That would be wild! I don’t know that any of that actually happens, but it feels like it absolutely could. This is the latest I’ve ever seen this many teams still have a shot. I’ll close with this. I really hope that it DOES work itself out, because it’s going to be heartbreaking if a few teams DO get left out because of the late transition to our new playoff system. Only time will tell, and all we can do now is sit back, watch, and see how this ultimately plays out over the final month of the season.