March Madness Best Bet (3/20/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck  |  March 20, 2025  |  1:43 P.M. CST 

Best Bets: 

Best Bet No. 1: BYU -2.5 (-110) vs. VCU

Best Bet No. 2: Yale +7.5 (-110) vs. Texas A&M

Play Ratings (Both): 2-Star

March Madness First Four Best Bets (3/19/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 19, 2025 | 4:44 P.M. CST

Best Bets:

We’re going to break this into two wagers here. We’re going to take Texas +2.5 and Tre Johnson (TEX) Over 19.5 points. Here’s the breakdown of why we’re going to split it into two smaller plays.

Let’s start with Texas. This is quite an inconsistent team; I would know as I’ve watched them play 15+ times this season, and I will admit it can be quite difficult to know what Texas team we are going to see. On the one hand, they have a lot of talent on their roster with a top 3-5 pick in this years NBA draft in Tre Johnson. They also have some solid transfers in Tramon Mark, Arthur Kaluma, & Jordan Pope. Tramon Mark has been especially important as of late. For some reason, Rodney Terry had Mark playing limited minutes for an extended stretch of SEC play. With Mark in the game, the Horns offense has especially improved, as they have averaged over 81 PPG in their last 10 games, most of which includes Mark playing increased minutes (prior to that stretch). Additionally, while I’m not a big Chendell Weaver fan, I will say since the Horns got him back they’ve looked a touch better defensively, and he’s brought a spark off the bench that the Horns had been lacking. Even if you just look at the two wins they had in the SEC tournament (which had Mark playing a lot, and Weaver in the rotation), the Horns outperformed what they did in the regular season in those same matchups. They got beat at Vandy by 8 earlier in the year, but in the SEC tournament they dominated the game from start to finish, leading by as many as 20 in the game. They followed that up knocking off Texas A&M. They split with A&M in the regular season, the first game they were absolutely embarrassed by 20. They won the second game at home by 1, however they trailed by as many as 20 in that game, and were largely outplayed for 35 minutes. They got hot in the second half and had a couple of very fortunate bounces. In the SEC tournament, they LED for the majority of the game with A&M. Even against Tennessee they were able to hang for about 25-30 minutes, before the wheels came off. And also, keep in mind that’s a Tennessee team who took down Auburn the next round. Lastly, the Horns have been battle tested all year. They went 7-10 in Quad 1 games, with wins at Oklahoma and Mississippi State, as well as over Kentucky, Missouri, OU, Vandy, & two over A&M. Xavier on the other hand, playing in a much weaker conference, has been abysmal when stepping up in class. They are a putrid 1-9 vs Quad 1 teams this season. Every single time they stepped up, they got knocked back down.

Now, Xavier is a team that did play well down the stretch, winning 7 in a row before losing in the Big East quarterfinals to Marquette. However, when you look at that stretch of wins, just one of those 7 victories came over teams in the field of 68. That stretch included wins over Depaul, Seton Hall, Creighton, Butler twice, & Providence twice. Providence, who was not good to begin with, also played both those games without their leading scorer, Bryce Hopkins. The lone win over a tournament team was over Creighton at home. And, while they played very well in that game, it still was not a Quad 1 game, as Creighton is outside the top 30 in the NET (38th). They are just a 9-seed in the NCAA Tournament. So, while Xavier might have a better record in that stretch, I’d actually argue that Texas is playing better basketball.

The one thing that concerns me about this game, and the reason I did not make this a BIG 3-4 unit play, is because of one guy: Rodney Terry. He’s one of the worst coaches in the country; he’s probably THE WORST coach at the P5 level. Texas, despite the talent, runs almost NO action to help put their guys in positions to be successful offensively. Essentially, their entire offense is purely 1-on-1 isolations, and pick & roll. Luckily for Terry, Tre Johnson is arguably the best 1v1 player in the entire country. And, Tramon Mark is elite getting downhill 1v1, and that can lead to easy buckets at the rim & sprayed out threes to shooters (which Texas does have). Lastly, though, this is just a pure numbers issue. I made Texas -1.78 in this game. The line for much of the week was +3.5. While I wish I had released this earlier and jumped on Texas at that number, still sitting 2.5 is a very large discrepancy this late in the season, even going through zero. Now, I do a few things unconventionally with my power rankings in terms of game-to-game adjustments (due to the smaller sample sizes we now have in college athletics with all the transfers each year). However, I’ve looked at 4 other groups power numbers, and every single one of them made this a pick'em or had Texas favored. So regardless of who you trust numbers wise, this number is absolutely off. I also would venture to guess that while we did see Xavier money early, the limits opening up and seeing this move back to 2.5 would indicate that 3.5 was too high. I don’t think the public moved this back a full point that early in the day. Regardless, Texas sits +130 right now, which gives them a 43.5% implied probability to win this game. Even if you want to use conservative estimates and say Texas is 50% to win this game, you’re catching a 6.5% edge. We’re going to take the +2.5 instead of the ML, but both are Plus EV plays.

The second part of this is Tre Johnson over 19.5 points (-108). Look, I understand the value in taking prop unders in bigger markets, such as the Super Bowl, the NFL as a whole, and SOMETIMES the NBA if the market gets inflated. However, the college basketball prop market is not something that is widely used and beat up. Because of that, you can often find good spots to back guys. And that’s exactly what this is. So, Tre Johnson is coming into this game averaging 19.8 PPG on the season. As I mentioned, the number we need to go over is 19.5. While he’s only done that in 14 of 31 games this season, he’s done it 6 of his last 10 games. He’s 10-9 to that over since January 11th, however, he’s 6-4 to that over in losses. The reason I mention that is, often times when Texas gets down, they turn to him and let him go 1v1. It would shock me if Texas lost this game by more than 3 AND Tre didn’t get to 20. I think there’s a good chance they win the game AND he gets to 20, but I actually think taking his over is a bit of insurance if Texas doesn’t play well as a group here.

I also want to mention that Texas got 4 days rest. Since January (SEC play essentially), when Texas is coming off 3 or more days of rest, Tre Johnson scored 20 or more 7 of 10 outings, averaging 24.5 PPG in those 10 games. Of the 3 he did not go over 20, he scored less than 16 points only ONCE (7 against OU in his worst shooting performance of the season). So, clearly there is some correlation between fresh legs and how he performs. There’s never a lack of confidence from this kid. It usually has to do with being overworked. His usage rate can be too high at times, and that can lead to progressive fatigue, especially in a conference like the Big East.

Lastly, let’s look at Xavier’s Defense. They are 44th in the country in defensive efficiency (nowhere near elite or even very good). But more than that, I went back and looked at how they performed against opponents top scorers in the recent past, and boy was it ugly. Over their last 12 games, every single game the opponent’s leading scorer exceeded their season average against Xavier. Additionally, 10 of those 12 games the leading scorer went for AT LEAST 20 points. They have been absolutely TORCHED by the opposing team’s best players, specifically when they have been guards. Now Ryan Kalkbrenner (big for Creighton) torched them as well, but the other 10 top scorers were all guards.

Thus, we are going to split this into two one star plays, and back Texas +2.5 and Tre Johnson over 19.5 points in this one. The odds of us losing both are very low, and there is a high chance we cash both.

Official Picks: Texas +2.5 (-110) | Tre Johnson OVER 19.5 Points (-108)

Play Rating: 1-Star

College Basketball Best Bet (3/15/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 15, 2025 | 2:51 P.M. CST

Overall Record: 53-23 (69.7%)

Best Bet: Florida -3 vs. Alabama

Official Pick: Florida -3

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Hoops ML Parlays of the Day (3/14/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 14, 2025 | 7:47 A.M. CST

Moneyline Favorite Parlay of the Day (5-Teams)

1) VCU -715 vs. St. Bonaventure (Estimated Win Probability: 86%)

2) North Texas -1100 vs. Tulsa (Estimated Win Probability: 94%)

3) Memphis -465 vs. Wichita State (Estimated Win Probability: 92%)

4) UC Irvine -550 vs. Cal Poly (Estimated Win Probability: 90%)

5) UC San Diego -625 vs. UCSB (Estimated Win Probability: 95%)

• Overall Parlay Estimate Win Probability: 63.59%

• Parlay Odds: +107 (48.31% Implied Odds)

• Parlay Edge: +15.28%

Moneyline Dog Parlay (7-Teams)

1) St. Louis +110 vs. Loyola Chicago

2) Oregon +235 vs. Michigan State

3) Michigan +130 vs. Purdue

4) Texas +395 vs. Tennessee

5) Marquette +190 vs. St. John’s

6) BYU +280 vs. Houston

7) Boise State +110 vs. New Mexico

Parlay Odds: +75000 (750 to 1)

Wager: $10 to win $7,500

College Hoops Best Bet (3/14/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 14, 2025 | 7:43 A.M. CST

Overall Record: 52-23 (69.3%)

Best Bet: Maryland -1 vs. Illinois

Official Pick: Maryland -1 (-110)

Play Rating: 4-Star

College Hoops Best Bet SEC Tournament (3/13/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 13, 2025 | 5:28 P.M. CST

Overall Record: 51-23 (68.9%)

Best Bet:

With about 5 games left in the season, I saw Missouri as a dark horse team to make a Final Four run. They have really good, big athletic wings. Everyone on the team can shoot it from deep. They rebound well, they had some phenomenal wins on the resumé. However, they lost 4 of their last 5 to end the regular season, including their last 3 games. However, all 4 losses came against tournament teams, and 3 of the 4 came on the road. The lone loss that came at home came against UK where the Wildcats shot the lights out.

Missouri comes into this game elite offensively, despite the losing streak. They are 13th in effective FG% (nationally), including top 30 in both 3-point & 2-point FG%. They average 83.5 PPG on the season as a team. Even in the past 5 games (where they went 1-4) the Tigers scored 83, 84, 93, 101, & 85 (89.2 PPG). So they have been scoring it at a super high level (higher than their season average by far), despite losing 4 of those games. The reason I bring this up is we are going to look to a team total here. Missouri is currently sitting at a team total of 80.5. As previously mentioned they have been scoring at a super high clip all year, and they have been especially good offensively lately. But just that number in itself, the Tigers have gone over 9 consecutive games. While Mississippi State is no slouch defensively, they definitely are not elite. They come into this game just 48th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.

I have seen some sharp money come in on the game over (157.5). However, I just don’t trust Mississippi State’s offense enough to get to their number (77.5). Could this become a complete shootout? Yes, because Missouri can gamble too much defensively and that can lead to a very up and down game. That said, I am just going to go with the team total here. I like what Missouri has done lately, and I like that the sharp money is on the over. I just trust Missouri to get over that number (as they have done nearly every outing as of late) way more than I trust both teams to combine for 157.5. So let’s back Mizzou on their team total. You can find -111. It’s good up to -117

Official Pick: Missouri Team Total OVER 80.5 (-111)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Hoops Conference Tournament Upset of the Day (3/13/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 13, 2025 | 3:57 P.M. CST

Not an official play, but my best ML pick for an upset today over +200

Upset Pick: Iowa +415 vs. Illinois

Iowa is currently catching 10.5 points taking on Illinois. This is a really interesting matchup, and I considered taking Iowa with the points as a best bet, but decided against it. The reason I didn’t take Iowa +10.5 as a best bet is largely due to their lack of rim protection and inability to consistently rebound. Illinois is an elite rebounding team and they CAN be really good at the rim when they want to be. They are 13th in the country in 2 point field goal percentage, and they are especially good at the rim. They also have an NBA lottery pick on their roster in Kasparus Jakucionis.

So overall, here’s the thing. This is a great spot for Iowa when you think about it. Usually teams like Iowa, who are hot in the tournament & face a team off a bye who has been sitting around for multiple days not playing, tend to fare well both SU & ATS. Iowa has basically been in playoff mode for the last two weeks, having to win on the road at Nebraska their final game just to get into the NCAA Tournament. They gave Michigan State all they could handle the game before that, and they then went out and beat Ohio State (who’s season was on the line). So Iowa is playing as good as they have all season, and although they aren’t fully healthy, the players who ARE available currently are finally 100%. The problem is, if Illinois decides they want to pound it inside every single possession and own the paint, they can run away with this game (which is why I’m not taking Iowa +10.5). Iowa is terrible defending the rim, as I mentioned. So they have no shot if Illinois starts going inside at will.

Why take Iowa then? Well the thing is, Illinois does NOT get a ton of their production from 2s, despite the fact that they are one of the most efficient 2-point shooting teams in the country. They actually shoot 2FGs at one of the lowest rates in the entire country (outside the top 300). Instead, this Illinois team LOVES to launch threes. They are WAY above average in terms of 3FG production, and they are 28th in the country in 3FG-rate (meaning they shoot more threes than 90% of the country). You would think a team that 3-point reliant would be at least a decent shooting team. But, that’s not the case. Illinois as a team shoots 31.0% from three, which is good for 320th in the country (364 Division 1 Teams).

So, while Illinois theoretically SHOULD go inside, knowing that if they do, they will likely run away with this game, they just have not played that style all season long. They just LOVE shooting threes. And if they fall in love with the three here, Iowa is a live dog. Iowa is GOING to score here. As I mentioned they’ve been playing and shooting it very well as of late. That said, they are also the 2nd most efficient offense in the Big 10 overall on the season. So, you have a very good offense, who is in a good rhythm. I estimate that Iowa has about a 30% chance to win this game overall. If Illinois plays the style they have all year and starts launching threes at a high rate, that probability could increase closer to the high 30s. And when you look at the number, you are getting 4.15 to 1 on your money to back Iowa ML. That’s just too good of a price. That’s essentially an edge of 10.5% to back Iowa here. So we’re going to do that. Like I said above, it’s not an official play, but it’s worth 1/4th or 1/5th of a unit.

Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes (+415)

Play Rating: N/A

College Basketball Conference Tournament Best Bet (3/11/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 11, 2025 | 9:59 P.M. CST

I haven’t had many best bets this past week, as conference tournaments tend to be more unpredictable. Remember, when you get to the tournament you feel the need to fire on everything because there are so many options; but pick your spots. Don’t force anything, especially if you’ve been tailing my plays. We’ve had a phenomenal year, so we are going to be very careful to pick our spots and keep our win % and profit margin high as we close out the season.

Below I’m going to give my best bet for the conference tournament winner

Conference Tournament Best Bet:

• Tournament: Big 10 Tournament

• My Pick: Maryland +370

  • Analysis: Look this Maryland team is one of the more dangerous teams in the country heading into March Madness. I really like the balance this team shows. They are top 35 in KenPom in both adjusted offensive efficiency (34th) and adjusted defensive efficiency (9th). However, if you look at how this offense has been trending over their last 10 games, they are very close to a top 10 offense. With the exception of one poor showing against Michigan State, they’ve been great on the offensive side the last 10 games. They’ve also been solid in road and neutral games this season, going 7-5 in such contests. They come into this tournament ranked 13th in the KP and 10th in the NET. So all the metrics consider this team one of the best 10 teams in the country, which tells me they are not only live to win this tournament, but to get to a Final Four come late March. Additionally, the Terps are very balanced on the offensive end in their style of play. They are top 100 in the country in both 3FG% (37th) and 2FG% (98th). Not only are they efficient across the board, but their point distribution is near the middle of the pack at every level (3s, 2s, & FT Line), meaning they aren’t heavily reliant on any one area. They can beat you a multitude of ways; this isn’t a team that you can say “okay if we slow them down in this area, we have a good shot to win.”

    1. The Terps come into this tournament 24-7. Of those 7 losses, not a single one has come by more than 6 points, and 3 of those 7 losses have come by a single possession. Their average margin of defeat in those 7 losses is just 3.9 PPG (losses by: 4, 6, 5, 4, 3, 3, & 2). So NOBODY has blown this team out all season, and you have to go all the way back to January 5th to find a team game they lost by more than one possession (Jan. 5th at Oregon, lost by 4). They come into this tournament winning 11 of their last 13 games (all in Big 10 play).

    2. So you have a team who is coming into this tournament healthy, in great form, very balanced, and with a deep roster poised to make a deep March run. Then we look at their path to the Big 10 Title. And, that is where I just really like this. They are the 2-seed in this tournament, so they already received a “Double-Bye” into the Quarter Finals. Their first game will come against Iowa, Ohio State, or Illinois. Ohio State is the only one of those teams who beat Maryland in the regular season, and it came in Columbus, by 3 (a game Maryland led for 35 minutes and lost on a banked in Bruce Thornton 3 with 10 seconds left). I believe it will likely be Illinois, but regardless neither of those 3 teams have above a 20% chance to beat Maryland on a neutral floor. That leads us into the Semi-Finals, which would likely be against Purdue or Michigan. Both those teams are reeling as of late, and while public perception may be that those two teams are contenders in March, nothing could be farther from the truth. Maryland will be at least a 4.5 point favorite against either team. That leads us to the Big 10 Championship which is LIKELY to be Michigan State. Now, if the title game is against anyone other than MSU, Maryland is going to be a decent sized favorite in that game. If it is MSU, I really believe Maryland would have that game circled. The last time the two met, Michigan State shocked the Terps on a Tre Holloway half court buzzer beater. A game, that really swung the Big 10 Regular Season Title in Sparty’s favor. If it does come down to Maryland MSU, we’ll be holding a +370 ticket, when you probably won’t be able to grab anything better than +120 pre-game. And, my numbers would have Maryland (including the SPOT) as a 1 point favorite.

    3. So, all that said, our best bet is going to be the Maryland Terrapins to WIN the Big 10 Tournament at +370 odds (you can play to +350). Keep in mind, you could do a rolling parlay and just take Maryland ML every round. If we see all the favorites advance, you’re looking at closer to +430 (based on my projections). However, it’s a risk, because if we get some big upsets, Maryland could end up being a bigger favorite than expected, which could drastically reduce those rolling parlay odds. I’m just going to back the terps to win the tournament. But you do have that option if you’d prefer to go that route. Either way, our wager is the same in what we need to have happen to WIN.

Official Pick: Maryland to win Big 10 Tournament (+370)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Hoops Best Bet 2 (3/5/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 5, 2025 | 6:44 P.M. CST

Same as the other - non official but maybe play as one unit.

Best Bet:

Ole Miss +3 (-110) vs. Tennessee

Play Rating: Non-Official

College Hoops Best Bets (3/5/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 5, 2025 | 5:27 P.M.

Sorry for the late post but here’s my play for the earlier games. I haven’t posted the smaller non-official plays lately, but here’s one I like tonight. I won both I played last night. So maybe play it as a 1 unit

Best Bet:

Alabama -2 (-110) 1H vs Florida

Play Rating: Non-Official

Moneyline Parlay of the Day (3/4/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 4, 2025 | 4:27 P.M.

We nailed our last one, so now 1-1 on the ML Favorite Parlays since posting them (6-2 overall since I started the experiment).

Moneyline Favorites Parlay (5-Teams)

1) Creighton -490 vs. Seton Hall: Creighton is a weird team, and they’ve had an up and down year. However, they have plenty of talent on that roster. Seton Hall does not. They are one of the worst power 5 teams I’ve seen in the last half-decade. This should be closer to -1000, but they have to correlate it with the line

Win Probability: 89.9%

2) Memphis -425 @ UTSA: I actually haven’t hated what I’ve seen out of UTSA the last month. They haven’t won a lot of games, but they’ve been close in a ton of games. The problem is, they can hang (talent wise) with everyone else in the conference. But the talent gap here between them and Memphis is massive. Additionally, even though this is UTSA’s last home game, they already had Senior Night a few nights ago. And, they went out and won that game to break a long losing streak. That was the big one they wanted. This is a bad spot, and they are completely outmatched.

Win Probability: 85.4%

3) Purdue -700 vs. Rutgers: Purdue seems to have gotten on track lately. This game is at home in Mackey Arena, where the Boilermakers have been virtually unbeatable the last couple seasons. They have lost a couple times there this year, but not to a team the quality of Rutgers. Worst case scenario, Dylan Harper & Ace Bailey play phenomenal and it’s close late, and the crowd wills Purdue to a victory. Best case scenario, Purdue jumps on them early and runs away with it. Either way, there’s a very low probability Purdue drops a home game here.

Win Probability: 86.7%

4) Boise State -1500 @ Air Force: Even if you just extrapolate out odds of Air Force winning ANY game in conference this season, you are sitting at roughly 6% (1-17). Yes, it’s on the road, but not in a hostile environment. And Boise State knows they CANNOT drop this game if they want to go dancing. They are squarely on the bubble and a loss to Air Force would knock them out for good. They will be focused tonight, and they will take care of Air Force easily.

Win Probability: 95.6%

5) Colorado State -1600 vs. San Jose State: Colorado State is playing as good, if not better, than anyone in the MW right now. They have won 5 straight, and 10 of their last 12. The only losses in that stretch came at New Mexico and at Utah State, the two best teams in the conference. San Jose State hasn’t been terrible, but they lost to this CSU team by 22 at home over a month ago. Now, they have to go to CSU who is playing for seeding in the MW tourney and trying to play themselves into the NCAA Tournament conversation. It’s tough to play on the road against CSU for good teams in the MW. San Jose State is not great. This will be an easy win for CSU

Win Probability: 94.3%

Parlay Edge:

Parlay Win Probability: 60.0%

Parlay Odds: -108 (51.9%)

Edge: +8.1%

Moneyline Parlay of the Day

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 1, 2025 | 4:01 P.M. CST

I started posting these the other day. They started off as an experiment (still are), but I started 5-1 with them, so I decided to post them for fun. They are NOT an official play like my best bets. They are more of something you could play for a few extra bucks for fun. I come up with 3-5 teams (sometimes more) that combined have greater than 60% chance of winning. For that to be profitable the juice can’t be hire than -150. So the highest juice I will give out on one of these is -150. I would say on average the juice is going to be closer to -110 (52.4% to break even). Our edge is greater, the greater the spread between the juice and the overall probability of winning all 3-5 games. Meaning, if we have a 65% probability of winning, and the juice is 10% (-110), then we have an edge of +12.6% (65%-52.4%). That edge would be greater, than say a 70% chance of winning at -150 juice, which would be a +10.0% edge (70% win probability minus 60% breakeven point for -150 juice). So I will try to provide you with my calculated edge, in case you are playing these. That way you can gauge how strong the play is. Again, don’t play these as a regular best bet. But you may throw a few extra bucks more on a parlay that I give at a 15% edge vs. one that I give at a 5% edge. Okay, enough explaining; the plays are below.

Moneyline Favorite Parlay Picks:

1) Iowa State -275 vs. Arizona: This is a ranked vs. ranked matchup, but I actually think the line is significantly low. Because Iowa State hasn’t been in great form lately, I didn’t pull the trigger on them as a best bet at -5.5. But I DO think they’ll cover that number. Arizona has been putrid lately. They were not good to start the year, but got hot in the middle of conference play. However, the Wildcats are just 2-4 over their last 6 games. Iowa State is one of the best home teams in the country. They carried a 29-game home winning streak prior to losing to K-State at home a couple weeks ago. And, lastly the spot is great; ISU needs this win to get back on track. And, the first time these teams played Arizona hit a 3/4ths court shot to send the game to overtime. They went on to win the game in the extra period. ISU has had this one circled for a while.

Win Probability: 83.8%

2) Baylor -1000 vs. Oki State: This one is simple. While OKST has played better over the second half of conference play, they are NOT a good basketball team. They have no tournament aspirations, and they are a TERRIBLE road team. The Pokes have lost 8 straight road games in conference play, and have not won a game on the road all year in the Big 12. They also have not won back-to-back games in Big 12 play all year, and they come into this game off a big home upset of Iowa State. Baylor, on the other hand, has been reeling as of late. Once a top 15 ranked team, they have dropped all the way to a projected 9-seed in the Big Dance. Their last two games are at TCU and home against Houston (both games they will be an underdog more than likely). If they lose this game at home to a bad Oki State team, they could be in serious danger of missing the tournament. They have to much talent on that roster and Scott Drew is too good a coach to have that happen. There’s a high probability they secure a home victory tonight.

Win Probability: 84.5%

3) St. Mary’s -900 vs. Oregon State: St. Mary’s has been elite this year in conference play. They are 16-1, undefeated at home in WCC games, and they are undefeated at home through the entirety of conference play (8-0). They already beat Oregon State by double digits on the road. This St. Mary’s team is for real. They will have no trouble at home, and they’ll finish off their final home game in style, taking care of the Beavers easily.

Win Probability: 93.1%

4) BYU -600 vs. West Virginia: These are two teams headed in opposite directions. WVU has been reeling since the loss of their best player, Tucker DeVries, and they are very likely to miss the NCAA Tournament. BYU on the other hand is playing their best ball of the season. They’ve won 5 straight games, including a dominating home win over the Kansas Jayhawks by 34 points. They also went into Arizona and knocked off the Wildcats in last weekend. Playing at BYU is tough enough. But add that the game is at night, and the fact that BYU is playing well and this is an impossible spot for WVU, who already lost AT HOME to this Cougars team a couple weeks back. WVU also has not won a road game since February 2nd, when they won at Cinci. This will be an easy win for the Cougars, as they will continue to climb up that seed line in the Big Dance.

Win Probability: 89.2%

Parlay Edge:

• 4-Team Parlay Odds: -106 (B.E. Point = 51.46%)

• Overall Win Probability: 58.81%

• Overall Edge: +7.35%

College Hoops Best Bets (3/1/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | March 1st, 2025 | 1:13 P.M. CST

Overall Record: 49-23 (68.1%)

Best Bets:

1) TCU -3.5 vs. UCF

2) Vandy +2.5 vs. Missouri

Both Plays: 2-Stars

College Basketball Best Bet (2/27/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 27, 2025 | 5:19 P.M.

Overall Record: 49-22 (69.0%)

Had one of our favorite plays of the year as a winner Tuesday night. No best bets last night. We’re back in action here tonight though, with one strong play. Let’s keep it rolling, as we near the end of the regular season. It’s almost March!!

Best Bet: Wichita State -1 vs. UAB

We’ve backed both of these teams once this season, and both times we’ve gotten W’s. Tonight we’re going back to well with the Shockers, who have been playing SHOCKINGLY well lately (pun intended). College basketball is a weird sport, hence the Madness that comes every March; but, that’s why we love it. That madness is fully on display with this Shockers squad this season. Wichita State started the season off with 6 straight wins, going 10-3 overall in the non-conference. Then conference play hit, and something went terribly wrong for them, as they could not BUY a win for about a month. They started an abysmal 1-7 in AAC play, with their lone win coming at home against Charlotte. At that point, something clicked for this squad. Since that 1-7 start, the Shockers have rattled off 6-straight wins, and they now sit .500 in conference play at 7-7. They miraculously have an opportunity to walk out of Charles Koch arena with a winning record in the AAC, with just 3 games left after tonight’s contest.

UAB, on the other hand, comes into this game tonight just one game back of Memphis for first place in the American in the loss column. What makes this such a good spot for the Shockers beyond the way they have been playing lately, is the fact that UAB has Memphis (the number one team in the AAC) coming into their building Sunday afternoon. That is by far the biggest game of the season for UAB, who lost to the Tigers in their first meeting. Thus, UAB knows that game will have AAC Championship implications. Now, obviously they have to win tonight for that game to be that type of championship matchup. But, this is just a classic look ahead spot. It’s not that they will take the Shockers lightly. When you see a team has won 6-straight, and you are traveling on the road, you can believe head coach Andy Kennedy is going to be preaching to his guys that they can’t overlook this game. But it’s only human nature for kids 18-23 to have that Memphis game in the back of their minds as Sunday approaches.

Wichita State comes in with all the confidence in the world. They beat Memphis in their home building last weekend, in front of a ruckus crowd. They know they can play spoiler to UAB’s AAC Championship aspirations, and they fully believe they are capable of doing it. Looking at this specific matchup, Wichita State is definitely a defensive team. And, while their season long metrics have them as an above average group, they have been ELITE on that side of the ball recently, ESPECIALLY at home. In their last 4 home games, the Shockers are allowing teams to shoot 44.5% effective FG% & 28.6% 3FG%. Those would currently both rank 4th in the COUNTRY in each respective category if you extrapolate that out for the entire season. UAB is definitely a better offensive team than Wichita State, however they are nowhere near elite shooting the ball. They are outside the top 135 in both 2FG% and 3FG%. The area they are elite is taking care of the ball (14th in TO%) and Offensive Rebounding (4th in ORB%). But, Wichita State is solid at not allowing ORBs (top 90 in nation in ORB% allowed). As a whole, the Shockers are an excellent rebounding team. Over this win streak, Wichita State is a +74 in rebounding, out-boarding their opponents by an average of 12.3 rebounds per game. They’ve also allowed just 9 ORBs per game over that same stretch. Now, they did give up 16 ORBs to Memphis last week. However, they also snagged 19 ORBs themselves in that game. So even when they have given up a lot of ORBs, they still find a way to create an advantage on the glass overall.

With all of that in mind, the number here is short. It’s taking into account WSU’s entire season more than the way they’ve played over the past month. I made this number Wichita State -3.7 and we are currently sitting -1. There’s decent value here, with a team playing just as good, if not better at home, facing a team in a big lookahead spot. Let’s back the Shockers here and lay the point for our best bet tonight.

Official Pick: Wichita State -1 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

CBB Moneyline Parlays of the Day (2/26/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 26, 2025 | 5:08 P.M. CST

Over the past couple of weeks I’ve been toying with some moneyline favorite parlays, mainly taking big home favorites who seldom lose on their home court, parlaying them together to decrease the number on a few other plays I like straight up, but not ATS. So these are NOT official plays, but more of an experiment, and you can play them if you’d like. I have gone 5-1 on them so far, so I figured they’d be worth posting (Small Sample Size). I also will include a ML Dog parlay for fun that I show some value in.

Moneyline Favorite Parlay: 8-Teams (+115)

1) UCONN -1250 vs. Georgetown: The Huskies took care of GT on the road by 8. They are playing much better basketball now compared to then. Georgetown is 3-8 on the road overall this season, 2-7 in conference play. Their only wins on the road have come against Villanova by 1, Seton Hall by 1, and Syracuse by 4. Plus there is sharp money on UCONN (opened 12.5 up to 14.5)

2) Auburn -1000 vs. Ole Miss: Auburn has one home loss all season and it’s to Florida. Their only losses on the season have come against the two teams currently ranked 2nd and 3rd in the AP poll (both top 5 in KP & NET). Additionally, Ole Miss has struggled on the road. They lost their last outing to Vanderbilt, and they are 2-3 their last 5 games away from home, with the two wins coming in close games to South Carolina & LSU (bottom 2 teams in SEC). Auburn wins easily.

3) Clemson -1400 vs. Notre Dame: Clemson has been rolling everyone lately. They are a very good basketball team and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them make a deep run. ND is overmatched on the road here. Clemson takes care of them easy

4) Furman -1500 vs. The Citadel: Furman is a solid basketball team (21-8 overall, 9-7 in SoCon). They are better at home and they face the Citadel who is 0-16 in conference play, and 5-22 on the season. The Paladins make light work of the Citadel.

5) Memphis -1000 vs. Rice: Memphis is starting to click at the right time. This is a MASSIVE talent mismatch. The Tigers will have no trouble here

6) Arizona -1600 vs. Utah: Arizona has lost 3 of their last 4, and they were robbed last time out against BYU at home. They will be motivated to jump all over Utah from the jump here; a Utah team who is out of the NCAA Tournament picture and just fired their coach. This is a spot Utah lays down and Arizona blows them out.

7) Creighton -1600 vs. Depaul: Creighton is one of the toughest places to play in the country. Depaul is the second worst team in the Big East. This won’t be close

8) Texas A&M -340 vs. Vanderbilt: The Aggies are coming off a home loss to top 5 Tennessee. They will bounce back here. Vandy is off a big emotional win over Ole Miss, a game that probably seals them into the NCAA Tourney. Big let down spot. Consider taking A&M -7.5 as well. But in case the Ags miss their free throws down the stretch, they may not cover but they’ll win outright.

Payout: +115

Moneyline Dog Parlay: 3-Teams (+1358)

1) Michigan State +150 @ Maryland: I hate taking road teams, but this Michigan State team seems to be better on the road at times. They spanked Michigan last time out in their own building. Maryland is good, but their best wins all year are Wisconsin and UCLA.

2) Texas +120 vs. Arkansas: I think Rodney Terry STINKS. But, this is Texas’ season. And, Arkansas is off a big win over Mizzou. Taking 2.5 makes no sense. Texas either wins this by 10 or they lose by 15. I’ll take the plus money here

3) Arizona State +165 vs. BYU: BYU is one of the weirdest teams in the country. They play up and down to their competition. Everyone is going to be on the Cougs tonight. They’re feeling themselves after that win at Arizona (that they did NOT deserve). The Sun Devils pull the outright upset tonight.

Payout: +1358

College Hoops Best Bet (2/25/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 25, 2025 | 5:00 A.M. CST

Overall Record: 48-22

Best Bet: San Diego State -120 (ML) vs. New Mexico

While this SDSU team isn’t at the same level as Aztec teams of the past half decade, they’ve really started to play better down the stretch, as we are close to the end of Mountain West play. The Aztecs are 8-2 in their last 10 games, going 4-1 in their last 5. They were on a 4-game win streak, prior to losing at Utah State in their last outing (no shame in that loss). Moreover, this Aztec team has been really solid at home as of late. In fact, their last loss at home came over a month ago against UNLV. That was actually the ONLY loss at home to a non-tournament team all year. Their other two home losses this year came against Gonzaga (11th in KP) and Utah State (42nd in KP); UNLV is 93rd in KP. I think it’s safe to say that UNLV loss was an outlier. So then we look at the other losses. Gonzaga early in the year is nothing to hang your head about, not to mention this Aztec team wasn’t playing it’s best ball that early in the season. The only other one came against Utah State. And that’s a Utah State team who swept the Aztecs in their season series; which tells me that it was likely just a poor matchup with that squad. Especially considering they lost each game by 8+ points.

SDSU is 4-0 in their last 4 home games, with their last two home wins coming by an average of 20 ppg. That also includes a 17 point domination of Boise State who is one of the better teams in this conference. SDSU comes into this game knowing that this is a MUST win for them when it comes to seeding for the conference tournament. Why is that important? Well, SDSU is PROBABLY out of contention for an at-large bid to the Big Dance this season. Therefore, their only path to the NCAA Tournament is to win their conference tourney. Well with that in mind, the way the MW Conference Tournament is structured gives the top 5 seeds first round byes. The TOP 3 seeds get byes and will play the winner of a game between two teams seeded 6-11. Meanwhile, 4 & 5 seeds automatically matchup in round 2. That makes getting the 3 seed incredibly important for two reasons. Number one, there’s a big drop off in the MW from seed 5 to seed 6. Seeds 1-5 (NM, Utah St, Colorado St, SDSU, & Boise) are all teams who are either in the NCAA Tournament or fringe-tourney teams. From seed 6 down, none of those teams have any shot at an NCAA Tournament birth, beyond winning the MW Conference Tournament; not a single team currently 6-11 has a winning record in conference play. Thus, by getting that 3rd seed, the Aztecs would AVOID having to play either Colorado State or Boise State in their first game, and they would instead get the winner of the 6 vs. 11 matchup (Currently UNLV vs Fresno State). Well currently SDSU sits tied for 4th (holding the TB over Boise) at 11-5. Colorado State sits ONE game above the Aztecs at 12-4, and SDSU & CSU split their season series. That means the tie-breaker would be win % against against the top team in the conference. That would be New Mexico, which CSU went 0-2 against; thus, a win by SDSU tonight over that NM team would give SDSU the Tie Breaker. Additionally, CSU still has to play AT Utah State (currently 2nd in MW). While, SDSU has a much easier schedule to finish MW play. After tonight’s game, they finish with 3 teams all in the 6-11 seed range in the MW. Throw in the possibility that SDSU DOES win tonight, and goes on to win the next 4. That would finish them 22-7 overall, 15-5 in the MW. Considering this team has been a staple in the NCAA tournament, if they were to finish with that record, and say win 2 games and GET TO the MW Championship game and LOSE, they would at least be in the conversation. A loss tonight, basically means they will almost certainly finish either 4th or 5th in the MW, which would give them a much tougher matchup in the MW tournament, would mean they have to play the TOP MW team in the semi-finals, and would mean their chances at an at-large bid to the Big Dance would be zero. Thus, my overall point here is that this is a MASSIVE game for SDSU tonight. And they will be as locked in as they have been all season.

In addition to the magnitude of this game from a post-season perspective, this Aztec team has also been quite consistent this season. In fact, they have not lost back-to-back games ALL YEAR. They are a perfect 6-0 off a loss this year. And, even more impressively some of the teams they BEAT coming off a loss were: Creighton (2nd in Big East), Houston (number 3 in country), Colorado State (3rd in MW), & Boise State (T-4th in MW). So they’ve been better than good coming off a loss this season. Under Brian Dutcher, the Aztecs have been phenomenal following a loss. They have lost back-to-back games just TWICE in the past FOUR YEARS under Dutcher. They are 26-2 off a loss under Dutcher, and the last time they lost back-to-back came late last year where they lost two straight by a single possession. So this team is in a spot they are very comfortable performing well. This specific group has yet to be eat twice in a row this season. AND, you have this New Mexico team playing their second straight road game. This is a tough travel spot for New Mexico. Yes, they will be fired up coming off that loss to Boise State, but they just got screwed having this be their next opponent. I’ll be clear - this is NOT a fade of New Mexico whatsoever; I actually really like the Lobos this year. But this is just an awful spot for them, and I really like what I’ve seen from this SDSU team as of late.

Lastly when we look at the specific matchups of this game, both these teams rely heavily on their defense. Both have significantly better adjusted defensive efficiency ratings than they do adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. In fact, both teams are outside the top 65 when it comes to offense, while both teams are top 30 in the country when it comes to defense. However, there are a few reasons I like this matchup for SDSU. Number one, New Mexico plays at one of the fastest tempos in the country offensively. They are 4th in the nation in average length of possession on offense. SDSU, on the other hand, forces team into much longer possessions, as they are 332nd in country in average length of possession on defense. Traditionally, it’s much easier to slow a game down than to speed it up, AND it’s much easier to control the tempo of the game when you are at home. So I believe this game is going to be played at a pace much more conducive to SDSU’s style than to NM’s style. Number two, New Mexico is heavily reliant on 2FGs; they get 53.5% of their total production on 2s, which is in the top 1/5th in the country. SDSU is ELITE at 2FG defense; they allow one of the lowest rates of production from 2s in the country (41.1% of opponent production comes from 2s), and they are ELITE at forcing tough 2s (they are 8th in the country in 2FG% defense with opponents shooting 44.2% from 2). Because of this, I believe New Mexico is going to have a tough time trying to get out in transition and get easy 2s. Instead they are going to have to play longer, half-court possessions, and grind out buckets on the offensive end. This is going to make it difficult for them to score efficiently against the 10th ranked SDSU defense (nationally).

Because of the matchup, the spot, and SDSU’s ELITE ability to bounce back off a loss, we’re going to back the Aztecs in this spot. I WISH New Mexico had beaten Boise State in their last outing. That would’ve made this a perfect spot for SDSU and this likely would’ve been a 4-star. Because NM is going to come in focused off a loss, I’m going to make this a 2.5-star. A small step up from a normal play for me, but not a full 3 or 4 star. I still LOVE the spot & love the matchup, and I believe we see the Aztecs take care of business tonight and stay in the hunt for one of those top 3 seeds in the Mountain West. Lay the cheap ML with the Aztecs. Get ahead of it before it moves

Official Pick: SDSU -120

Play Rating: 2.5-Star

College Hoops Best Bet (2/24/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 24, 2025 | 7:23 P.M. CST

Overall Record: 48-22 (68.6%)

Best Bet: Houston @ Texas Tech Over 130

So I came into this night initially thinking I was going to look to go Texas Tech +2 (which is where this sat most of today). However, one of the Red Raiders best players, Chance McMillian, did not play a few days ago at West Virginia, and I wanted to monitor his status. Luckily I did hold off, as just a few minutes ago McMillian WAS ruled out for tonight’s game (he’s in a walking boot). That’s a huge blow to the Red Raiders in terms of pulling off the season sweep of the best team in the Big 12 in the Houston Cougars. The market responded accordingly, with the line jumping from 2 to 4.5 as the news was released. That’s quite a big jump for one player, but that is the value of McMillian to this team.

Now, that said, even with one of the top offensive players for the Red Raiders out tonight, I think there is some value in the total as we currently sit. This opened 133 and it got bet down to 131. I didn’t agree with that initial move, and then when McMillian got ruled out we saw that drop another point. It’s telling though, the value of McMillian to the point spread vs. the total; while the Cougars jumped 2.5 points, the total dropped only one. One reason for that is TTU has shown the ability to score without McMillian. They put up 73 points against West Virginia without him a couple nights ago. Back on February 15th, McMillian was just 2/4 from the field, and scored just 10 points, and TTU dropped 93. I’m not saying that TTU is better with McMillian; they are not. He is very important to them. But when you look at this number, if the line is correct, we’re looking at Houston winning by 4-5 points. If that holds true, we’re looking at TTU needing 63-64 points. Texas Tech has scored less than 64 points ONCE this entire season and it came months ago. Yes, Houston has an elite defense metrically, but from watching them this year, I don’t believe they are anywhere near some of the past elite defenses Kelvin Sampson has had. And they specifically tend to give up a lot of good looks from three. Teams haven’t shot it great against them (they’re 77th in the country in 3FG% defense), but that’s nowhere near elite. And Texas Tech really took advantage of that last time these two played, knocking down 12 triples in Houston.

Now Tech gets to play this one at home, where the crowd is going to be going absolutely BONKERS. Tech is a top 15 team in the country in terms of 3 point percentage, and they have a propensity to get hot in an environment like this. Houston’s offense on the other hand, is much better than it’s been in years past. In fact, they are 7th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (KP). While I don’t believe that they are really the 7th best offensive team in the country, I DO think they are a solid offensive team. And the numbers show it; Houston is SOMEHOW 4th in the country in 3FG%. That shocked me when I saw that number. They’ve shot it at 40% from beyond the arc this season, and that’s with Emmanuel Sharp (best 3 point shooter from last year) going through some struggles. Tech’s defense on the other hand, has been quite suspect. It showed the first time these two teams met. This total went over by 30+ points from the current number (163 points). Now, that game did go to overtime, BUT it still went over by double digits in regulation. And, while there is no McMillian for Tech, they lost their head coach AND leading scorer (JT Toppin) in the first 4 minutes of that game at Houston. Toppin has averaged 26 points per game over the last 9 games, and has been on an absolute TEAR statistically. He’s a full go tonight, and that SHOULD make up for the loss of McMillian when looking at this number.

Overall, I just think books haven’t adjusted to this specific Houston team. They are better offensively than in years past & worse defensively. I was a bit weary of the line movement the other way, but I can’t pass up value when I see it. Even with this injury accounted for, I make this total 140. Could Houston lay an egg offensively and Tech wins this 70-55? Yes. Could the inverse happen and Tech has their worst night of the season and Houston turns it into a grinded out game? Yes. But the home team usually controls the pace; and Tech likes to run. I think this is a somewhat up and down game, and I believe we go over this number relatively easily. My prediction is Houston sneaks out a win they don’t deserve late, 71-70. And we go over with that outcome. Give me the over in this spot at a good price.

Official Pick: Houston @ Texas Tech OVER 130 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Hoops Best Bets (2/22/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 22, 2025 | 8:59 A.M. CST

Overall Record: 47-21

Best Bets Today:

1) Texas A&M ML (-120) vs. Tennessee

2) Vanderbilt -1 vs. Ole Miss

All Play Ratings: 2-Stars

Note: These are my two earlier slate games; check back at 1 for the later games. If you don’t see a post at 1, check back every 30 minutes. I could possibly add 2-3 more games. However, these are my top two plays of the day. They just happen to be earlier. Best of luck.

College Hoops Best Bet (2/21/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 21, 2025 | 4:30 P.M. CST

Overall Record: 46-21

Best Bet: Villanova +1.5 vs. Marquette

Look, I’m no Kyle Neptune fan. In fact, I believe Villanova made a massive mistake hiring this guy. He essentially came over with one year of experience as a head coach, and he had a losing record that year; and, he came in to take over a program that had been used to getting to Final Fours and winning National Titles under legendary coach Jay Wright. That said, backing Nova at home in conference play in a spot like this has been a very profitable endeavor for me over the past two seasons. This year we already cashed two tickets on this Nova team getting wins over ranked opponents at home. I believe we’re going to get a third one here.

Nova has actually been playing much better basketball lately, especially at home. They currently sit 15-12, 8-8 in the Big East, but heading into a road game against Providence last week they had just beaten #9 St. John’s, and they were on a 3-game win streak. That win over St. John’s was massive for their tournament hopes (at the time they had reached 15-10 overall, 8-6 in Big East). However, they then had to go on the road against an inferior Providence team who was looking to play spoiler, and that’s exactly what they did. It was a clear let down spot for Nova, and they definitely gave a let down worthy performance. But that’s exactly why I have a good feel for this Nova team. The spots where you think they will step up and beat a good team in a big spot at home, they almost always do. Similarly, when they’re coming off a big win, they often provide you with a big let down. They are a very predictable (almost cliché) team under Neptune, and that makes sense, considering he’s not a great coach. They followed up that loss with what was a really great performance ON THE ROAD at UCONN the following outing. They really outplayed the Huskies for 35 minutes. But, leading by double digits with just 7 minutes to play they absolutely collapsed. They not only lost the game, but nearly didn’t cover 7.5 (59-66 loss).

Regardless, I still liked what I saw from the Wildcats in the first 35 minutes against UCONN. With that in mind, they’ve played really good basketball for 4 of their last 5 games. And the two losses both came on the road. While Nova hasn’t been ELITE on the road, all of their losses have been tight games. And they absolutely feed off that home crowd, especially offensively. This is a team who is an EXCELLENT three-point shooting team and free throw shooting team, and they are even better when playing at home. Marquette, on the other hand, has been less than stellar as of late, and more importantly they’ve been less than stellar on the road. They lost their last two road games against St. John’s and Creighton. Now they did win their 4 previous road games prior to those two losses, however those wins came against Providence, Seton Hall, Butler, & Depaul (the 4 worst teams in the Big East). A couple of those games were very tight as well; they beat Butler by single digits & Depaul by just 2. In fact, their only road conference win over a team with a conference record above .500 came against Xavier (who is just 9-7 in Big East play) and it came by just 2 points. So I think this is a really good spot for Nova. They are back home, where they have played well lately, against a team who has STRUGGLED on the road lately (especially against better competition). Additionally, this is absolutely Nova’s season. While I don’t think they will get in the NCAA Tournament regardless of the outcome tonight, they know that a win here would put them back in the conversation. Falling back to 15-13 with just three games left would be a death sentence, especially considering they will likely have zero Quad 1 opportunities left; Georgetown is the highest NET Ranked team left that they have on the road, and they are currently 83rd in the NET (teams must be top 75 if playing them on the road for it to be a Q1 game). The rest of the games they play will be sub-quad 1 games. Thus, this is the last chance to add a signature win to their resumé before the conference tournament. And, as I said prior, while I think they’re way outside looking in, a win here plus running the table in 3 very winnable games puts them 19-13, 12-8 in the Big East, with a shot to win a couple Big East Tourney games. That MAY give them a shot. Overall, point being that this is a massive game for Nova (just like the St. John’s game was last week, when they stepped up and pulled the outright upset).

Lastly, matchup wise, I do like Nova in this specific game regardless of location. That is mainly because Marquette is not a good shooting team. They are a better defensive team than offensive team. And, while Nova doesn’t play at a crazy pace by any means, they are extremely efficient in the half court (specifically at home). If Nova has a hot game from beyond the arc, I just don’t know that Marquette can keep up offensively. Now, that said, Kyle Neptune led squads are always liable to blow late leads. We saw them blow a big lead late at UCONN last week and lose outright. We saw them blow an 11-point lead over St. John’s last week as well, although they were able to find a way to win this one. That said, UCONN has more offensive firepower than Marquette. And, St. John’s has shown a propensity to come from behind late in games (just ask UCONN). That said, I believe at home against this team, I don’t fear Nova blowing a big lead if they do get ahead late on THIS Marquette team.

Overall, I just think Nova has a clear edge here in every facet: the spot, the motivation, how the teams have looked lately, and style of play. Like I said early in the breakdown, I really like taking Nova in these spots: facing a ranked team at home as a short dog. I think we get one of Nova’s best efforts tonight. That doesn’t necessarily mean they will shoot the ball great. If they DO, though, I believe Nova can win this game going away. If they don’t, I still think they have a decent shot to win the game outright. So let’s back Villanova here. Take the 1.5 to be safe, but I think they will win the game outright.

Official Pick: Villanova +1.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

College Hoops Best Bets (2/18/25)

Author: Dylan Lieck | February 18, 2025 | 4:21 P.M. CST

Overall Record: 44-21 (Last Night’s Play = Push)

Best Bets:

1) Mississippi State -2.5 vs. Texas A&M

This Mississippi State team is one of the weirder teams in the country this season. They started off the year 14-1, with some really impressive wins. They had 3 great road wins in their first 15 games: at SMU by 5, at Memphis by 13, and at Vanderbilt by 12 (all 3 are NCAA tournament teams). However, after the 14-1 start, they ran into that SEC gauntlet that so many teams have struggled with. The Bulldogs are just 4-6 in their last 10 games. That said, all of their losses in that stretch came against Top 20 teams, and 5 of those 6 came against teams who were ranked in the top 10 at the time of each matchup. The Texas A&M Aggies on the other hand, come into this game 20-5 (9-3, SEC) and currently riding a 5-game win streak (7-1 in last 8 games).

Part of the reason we are going to back the Bulldogs in this spot is looking at these two teams results. Mississippi State is traditionally very good at home; KenPom has them ranked 13th best in terms of home court advantage value to the point spread (3.9 points). However, MSST has lost 3 consecutive games at The Hump (their home gym). That said, those losses came to Florida, Alabama, and Missouri, three of the best teams in the conference, and two of the best 5 teams in the country. While A&M DOES come into this game ranked 7th in the AP Poll, the Aggies are actually ranked just 13th in KenPom. Not to say that KenPom is the end-all, be-all, but my numbers tend to agree more with KP than with the current top 25 “rankings.” I have A&M currently ranked as the 12th best team in the country; while, I have Florida 2nd, and Alabama 4th. Then you look at the Aggies road performances. They won at South Carolina by just 4 points (SC is winless in SEC play). They beat Ole Miss by 1; however, if you watched that game, the Aggies had no business winning. They trailed the entire way, including by 5 with under 30 seconds to play, and won in very flukey fashion due to Ole Miss missing the front end of a one-and-one and Obaseke nailing basically a buzzer beater from 3. And, they lost to both Kentucky and Texas on the road; two teams ranked LOWER than Mississippi State in my rankings. Their one impressive road win was against Missouri, and again that game could’ve gone either way. Mississippi State hasn’t lost 4 consecutive times at home in a long time, and the Aggies are due for a road loss. The Hump will be absolutely rocking tonight as the #7 ranked Aggies come into Starkville. And I like that State is going to be motivated to get a signature home victory.

While both teams come into this game sqaurely in the NCAA tournament, MSST definitely has more at stake. A&M currently sits 4th in the SEC, with a one game lead over Mizzou. However, the Aggies have the head to head advantage over Mizzou, giving them a little bit of extra cushion. They also get 3 of their final 5 games at home, and one of their two road games is at LSU (bottom of SEC), so they have a favorable path to a top 4 seed. Meanwhile, MSST currently sits in a tie for 8th in the SEC. However, considering UK beat MSST in their only head-to-head matchup, MSST really sits in 9th place. Why is that important? Because the top 8 teams in the SEC get a first round bye in the SEC tournament. It’s a big difference being in that 8th spot vs. 9th. Additionally, although MSST has some good wins on their schedule, they are 0-5 against Top 10 teams this year. This will be their 6th try, and their 3rd try at home. That said, the teams that have BEAT THEM in those matchups were all much better offensive teams than this Aggie group. While they do have some dynamic guards in Wade Taylor IV and Zhuric Phelps, they are a below average P5 offensive team. And, specifically a TERRIBLE shooting team. This A&M team is 292nd in the COUNTRY in Effective FG%, 306th in 3FG% (31.2%), 256th in 2FG% (49.2%), and 295th in FT% (68.4%). They rely heavily on their defense and on the offensive glass. And while MSST isn’t the greatest shooting team in the world either, they do rank in the top 35 in 2FG%. If MSST can keep A&M off the glass tonight, and have a relatively efficient shooting night from inside the arc, I think they have a very good shot of winning this game and covering the number.

Let’s ride with the home team here in this spot, as I think the Bulldogs get their signature top-10 win tonight in Starkville over the Aggies. Take Mississippi State -2.5

Official Pick: Mississippi State -2.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star

2) Wisconsin -3.5 vs. Illinois

This Wisconsin team really impressed me over the weekend. I took Purdue at home at Mackey Arena, laying 5.5 points against the Badgers, and I really liked the play. While Purdue flirted with getting it to double digits in the first half, Wisconsin refused to allow that to happen, and even cut it to 1 heading into halftime. At about the 15 minute mark of the 2nd half, the Badgers seized COMPLETE control of the game, and from there Purdue never had a shot, in their own damn building. And it wasn’t because Purdue played terrible; it was because Wisconsin was really good. They have some dynamic guards, they have some solid bigs, they play hard, and they’re deep. It’s a hard combination to beat, and it’s why I’ve moved them up into the top 10 of my power rankings.

The Badgers also have only lost ONE home game all season, and it was months ago at home to Michigan (by just 3 points). On the other hand, 4 of Illinois losses this season have come on the road. And the Fighting Illini are just 1-3 in their last 4 road games in Big 10 play. They also lost their last game, Saturday, at home to Michigan State; a game they led by double digits much of the first half. Not only did the Illini blow the lead, they ended up losing by double digits, and they did so in UGLY fashion. Illinois finished the game a staggering ZERO for their last 20 shots. That’s right, they missed 20 consecutive shots to close the game. That stat alone, gives me confidence to back the Badgers here. You’re getting the better overall team, playing at home, against a team really lacking confidence at the moment. I understand how the market works, but this number is off. Wisconsin should be at least a 5.5 point favorite here. So it’s a good home/away matchup, we are getting significant value, and we’re taking the home team.

One last thing I want to mention that favors Wisconsin is the style and efficiency of these two teams. The way Illinois plays is one of the more baffling things I’ve watched over the past half-decade in college basketball. The Illini come into this game shooting an abysmal 31.1% from 3FGs, which is 308th in the country. For reference there are 364 total teams in D1 College Basketball. So they are one of the absolute WORST three point shooting teams in the country. However, for some reason, they are 27th in 3FGA rate; meaning, they take threes at a top 30 rate in college basketball (47.1% of their FGAs are 3FGAs). Again, that would make sense in today’s day & age IF the Illini were a decent to good 3 point shooting team. But being as bad as they are and continuing to launch that many triples, just does not make any sense. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is an excellent shooting team from both three and inside the arc. They shoot it over 5.5% better from beyond the arc than Illinois. Additionally, Wisconsin comes in 1st in the COUNTRY in FT% at 83.7%. Illinois comes in outside the top 50 in that category. And lastly, the one thing Illinois does REALLY well is crash the offensive glass. They rely heavily on offensive rebounds to keep them in games, and get them more shots due to the fact that they are highly inefficient. However, Wisconsin is excellent at keeping teams off the offensive glass. They are 44th in the country in ORB% defense. While that isn’t ELITE, it’s solid. And I believe it will be enough to keep the Illini at bay on the offensive glass.

Let’s back the home team here as well, laying way too short of a number. Badgers win this by double digits.

Official Pick: Wisconsin -3.5 (-110)

Play Rating: 2-Star