NFL Best Bet Thursday Night Football (12/5/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | December 5, 2024 | 3:45 P.M. CST
TNF Game: Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
LINE: Lions -3 | Total: 53
Best Bet:
So full disclosure I got this at a better number than currently available, but I still believe there’s value at the current price. And, while I don’t normally like taking overs in divisional matchups, let alone a second matchup of the season, that’s exactly what we’re going to do here. These two teams come into this game with 2 of the BEST offenses in the league when fully healthy. Thankfully for Packers fans, Jordan Love is finally that: healthy. The Packers come into this game with their full complement of weapons on the offensive side of the ball. On the other side, the Lions have been healthy for the most part on the offensive side of the ball for the entire season. Hence why they’ve bolstered the second most efficient offense in football through 13 weeks.
What isn’t healthy about these two teams is their DEFENSES. Both defenses are extremely banged up, especially the Lions. And, while there may be some familiarity between the teams, it’s not enough to overcome the bevy of injuries on both teams defenses. We’ll start with the Packers who are down their best secondary piece for another week in Jaire Alexander. He’s their lockdown corner, and with him out they will be very thin in the secondary vs these weapons. Then add in Corey Ballentine (CB) and Edgerrin Cooper (LB) both out as well. The Packers are going to have trouble keeping this Lions pass game in check. While sometimes the Lions lean on the run game, especially early in games, I believe in this spot we see a very balanced attack from the jump
The other defense is currently being held together by scotch tape and Elmer’s glue. I mean there are injuries across the board for the Lions. They had to sign multiple guys this week just to be able to field a roster out there tonight. Obviously they lost Aidan Hutchinson multiple weeks prior to this game, and then Alex Anzelone a few weeks later. Those two are massive losses that will show up here, in both pressuring the QB, as well as in stopping the run. Then you add in three new injuries ALL to that defensive line in DJ Reader, Joshua Paschal, & Levi Onwuzurike. They are down to 3rd string guys on that DL. Good luck in short yardage situations trying to stop Josh Jacobs, not to mention the difficulty this defense will have getting pressure on Jordan Love.
When you look at this number in the market, it’s extremely high, but it’s that high for a reason. If you don’t believe me that the injuries are THAT significant think about this. The line when Detroit played AT Green Bay in BAD WEATHER a few weeks back was Detroit -3.5. We are currently sitting at The Lions -3 AT HOME. What that means is on a neutral field Detroit is probably around 6 point favorite if this game is played 4 weeks ago. Now on a neutral field this line tells us that it’s basically a PICK EM! That’s ABSURD! And the reasoning is ENTIRELY because of the Lions defense. So the defensive injuries for Detroit are so large that they have legitimately swung the line 6 points from what previously thought. Maybe even 7 given how good Detroit has been this year. Interestingly, if you look at these teams when healthy, the power numbers put Detroit as a much bigger favorite than 3 points (as I just said), yet there has been NO professional support for the Lions in the market. Why? Because nobody wants to back that defense in its current form.
I don’t even think either offense has to bring their “A” games tonight to put up 28+ points, which is roughly what we’re going to need from each to go over this total. As much as I dislike overs in primetime games, as well as in divisional games, in this SPECIFIC SPOT, this is too good of a play to pass up. We’re going to take the LIONS/PACKERS OVER 53 (good to 53.5)
Official Play: Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions OVER 53 (-110)
Play Rating: 2-Star
