College Basketball Best Bets (11/27/24)
Author: Dylan Lieck | November 27, 2024 | 2:01 P.M. CST
Current Record = 10-0 (+20.0 units)
Best Bet #1: Memphis Tigers +9.5 vs. #4 Auburn Tigers
Tigers vs. Tigers in the Maui Invitational Championship game this evening. And yup, you guessed it, we’re backing the Tigers in this one. The Memphis tigers, that is. The Maui Invitational 2024 edition has quite possibly been the most entertaining tournament I’ve seen in it’s entirety in a long time in college basketball. It’s felt like every single game has come down to the wire, which is partially why I’m going to lean to the dog here. The first round was full of crazy comebacks including Memphis blowing a 13 point lead against UCONN in the first round in the final 3 and a half minutes. The Tigers actually got down 4 in OT, but they were able to battle back and find a way to win that game and advance to the semis. I was very impressed with Memphis’ mental toughness in that game. Blowing a lead like that and letting a HUGE upset win over the #2 ranked UCONN Huskies is not easy to overcome. Once UCONN took a 4 point lead in the OT period, it would’ve been very easy for Memphis to lay down, but they didn’t. They fought back and pulled out a win. That was impressive
It was also impressive that the Tigers opened as a 1.5 point favorite against Michigan State in the semis, and SIGNIFICANT professional money came in AGAINST Memphis, pushing the line 4 full points to MSU -2.5 at close. Despite the market love for the Spartans, Memphis handled Sparty from start to finish. They took an early lead, and never really let Michigan State into the game all day long.
On the other hand Auburn was lucky to even get through the first round, after trailing by 18 points to a very good Iowa State team early in the second half. The Tigers found a way to pull themselves off the matte and tie the game with under a minute to go. A tip in by Jonahi Broome with 2 seconds left gave Auburn the win. They followed that up with a much less stressful win over North Carolina, 85-72. It was impressive how the Tigers were able to easily handle a talented Tarheels team. However, that UNC team had no business being in the semifinals. They were getting dominated by a subpar Dayton team in the first round, and if it weren’t for a 20+ free throw attempt disparity, they never even would’ve got the game to single digits. The officials kept North Carolina in the game to set up the big “marquee” matchup with Auburn in round 2, but it turned out to be the worst game of the tourney. And, that’s not a mistake, as I believe UNC might be the worst team in this tournament. It’s between them and Colorado who has looked really good after a big upset of UCONN last night.
Overall I just think this is too many points. I believe oddsmakers are taking into account the fact that Auburn beat Iowa State and then was able to handle a supposed top 15 team in UNC. But the reality is that UNC is a borderline top 25 team, and Auburn was fortunate to beat Iowa State at all. Memphis has looked like the much more consistent team in this tourney. I also think that this line is taking into account the fact that Memphis is not a very deep team. And, when playing a 3rd game in 3 days that should come into affect (according to oddsmakers). But I disagree. I’ve seen plenty of teams with not deep rosters come into this tournament and win the entire thing outright. I can remember back to 2010 when Kemba Walker literally won the tournament by himself. I can remember a Gonzaga team a couple years back winning it all with very little depth. I believe this early in the season, a lack of depth and a belief that legs will give out is not a good assumption. These are well trained athletes at the peak of their physical performance and there’s not really a progressive fatigue aspect to account for yet this year.
For all these reasons, as well as the fact that I just think this number is way too high (I made this Auburn -5) we’re going to back Memphis catching the 9.5. It’s just simply too many points to catch in a championship game, when the Memphis Tigers have that much talent on their roster. Let’s go MEMPHIS plus the points, and believe me when I say, they are a LIVE DOG HERE! Go Tigers!
Official Play: Memphis +9.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
Best Bet #2: UCONN Huskies vs. Dayton Flyers OVER 146.5
Nobody would’ve believed you if you said the #2 ranked UCONN Huskies, who have won back-to-back National Titles under Head Coach Dan Hurley, would be playing in the 7th place game in the Maui Invitational. It’s shocking from the standpoint that this is the highest ranking we’ve seen the Huskies carry into the pre-season. However, it’s not shocking when you look at all the pieces UCONN lost from last year’s team. An absurd FOUR starters were drafted in the 2024 NBA Draft who played on last year’s National Title Team. Stephon Castle and Donavan Clingan were drafted in the TOP TEN in the NBA Draft, while Cam Spencer and Triston Newton were both taken in the second round. The only starter from last year’s squad to return this year is Alex Karaban. And, while Karaban is a very good player, he’s not used to being option number 1 or even number 2.
Now all that said, the one important point to make here, goes hand-in-hand with why I like the over in this spot. What made that UCONN team so special last season was their incredible ability to defend at a high level. I mean that team was ELITE defensively, and they only got better in big moments. Even Zach Edey, who nobody could stop, struggled mightily in that National Title game until late when they allowed him to get some easy buckets. But, that area (defensively) is where we’ve seen the biggest drop off from UCONN year-over-year. In fact, offensively the first two games of the Maui Invitational, they really have looked great. Against Colorado in Round 2 they shot 48% from the field & 39% from three, making 12 triples in the game. In the first round against Memphis they were even better, shooting 49% from the field & 47% from three, while knocking down 14 triples in that contest. The issue is that the Huskies allowed BOTH unranked Colorado and unranked Memphis to each shoot OVER 50% from the field and OVER 50% from the 3-point line. Those are ABSURD numbers for this program’s expectations. Most importantly, though, is the fact that COLORADO did that to UCONN. Not to say a two-game sample size is relevant, but the way Dan Hurley operates, I felt that if UCONN’s defensive woes against Memphis were fixable in the short-run, we’d have seen some major adjustments to their scheme. But that wasn’t the case whatsoever. In fact, Colorado actually shot BETTER than Memphis did and was more efficient. Now the pace of the game was slower, but they still struggled to get stops. My overall point being, I don’t see how this UCONN team (from what I’ve seen this season) is going to have any better of an effort here.
Also keep in mind, this is a program that has won back-to-back National Titles, and they have lost a total of ONE non-conference game in the past 2 seasons. They are held to an extremely high standard. I bring that up to say, I don’t believe UCONN just lays over here and we get a lackluster performance. I think we see them play well offensively, and at least give effort throughout the game. And since I don’t think their defensive issues are immediately fixable, I think that’s a good recipe for an over.
Dayton on the other hand has played some really high scoring games. Game 1 of the Maui Invitational was a BEST BET WINNER for us as we went OVER the total in UNC/Dayton. We got there easily as the number was just 155, while there were a whopping 182 points scored in the game. Game 2, however, they played a much slower paced, much better defensive team, in Iowa State. The total on that game went FLYING OVER the 142.5, as the two teams combined for 175. That means in Dayton’s two games here in Maui, they’ve gone over their total by an average of 30 points. THIRTY POINTS. Now, I will say this: there is a reason this number is in the 140s and not higher. And that’s largely because Dayton plays a very methodical style offense with lots of motion. And, while they’re extremely efficient scoring the ball, they can take the air out of it at times. Additionally, while a team like UNC will push the pace, UCONN is much more adaptable to their opponent. The Huskies have always allowed their opponent to dictate tempo, and they’ve just been better at any style you want to play. So that’s the only thing that gives me pause here from making this a HUGE 3 or 4 star play. I decided to keep this a 2-star rating.
All that said, this number is short according to my metrics. I officially made this number 152.3 exactly (going by my power ratings) and we’re currently sitting at 146 or 146.5 depending on where you shop around. So we’re catching 6.3 points of value here, early in the season with two efficient offensive teams who also allow their opponents to shoot the ball at a high percentage. As long as we dodge a slow start from the two teams, given that it’s the final game of the tournament and they’re really playing for nothing, I think we should get there relatively sweat free. Although sweat-free tends to not exist in the gambling world. Nonetheless, best of luck, have a great Thanksgiving tomorrow, and enjoy cashing a nice total on the over in the final game of the great Maui Invitational.
Official Play: UCONN vs. Dayton OVER 146.5
Play Rating: 2-Star
