Can the Dallas Mavericks Get Back In These NBA Finals?
Author: Dylan Lieck | June 11, 2024 | 12:20 A.M. CST
The Dallas Mavericks squandered a phenomenal opportunity Sunday night in front of over 19,000 at TD Garden Arena. Not only did the Boston Celtics’ star, Jayson Tatum, have a horrific shooting night (6 of 21 from the field, 1 of 7 from three), but the Celtics team as a whole had one of their worst three-point shooting outings of the postseason. Boston, as a team, was just 10 for 39 from beyond the arc (25.6%). This Boston team is one of the most three-point reliant teams in all of basketball, which means a poor shooting performance like the one they had Sunday night really opens the door for their opponent. It showed in the second round of the playoffs, when the Celtics shot just 23% from beyond the arc against the Cleveland Cavaliers on their home floor, resulting in one of their only two losses of the playoffs.
The Dallas Mavericks were unable to capitalize however, largely due to the fact that they shot an even worse percentage from downtown than Boston. The Mavs finished the night 7 for 27 from the three-point line, good for just north of 23%. There were a number of other factors that played into the Mavericks game 2 loss, however the inability to make open jumpers (specifically threes) played a massive role. Over the course of the playoffs, the Mavs have been a very solid three point shooting team, which was a big reason they were able to conquer the gauntlet that is the Western Conference. However, games 1 and 2 have been an absolute struggle for Dallas. As a team, the Mavericks are 13/52 from three-point range so far in these NBA Finals, good for a meager 24.5%. However, that number still doesn’t tell the entire story. Over the first two games, Luka Doncic has eight made three-pointers (of the Mavs 13 total made threes), and he’s shooting slightly above 38%, a pretty darn good number in playoff basketball, let alone for a guy playing in his first ever NBA Finals, while putting up that percentage in two road games. However, that means the rest of the Mavs as a team are shooting an abysmal 15% from beyond the arc. That includes Kyrie Irving, who has yet to make a three in this series (0/8), P.J. Washington going 1/8, Josh Green going 1/4, and Maxi Kleber putting up a goose egg as well (0/2).
If the Mavericks want to get back in this series and have a shot at claiming their second ever NBA Finals in franchise history, they are going to need the rest of the crew to step up in a big way over the remainder of this series. That all starts with Kyrie Irving. Irving has had two of his worst shooting and scoring games of his career in the NBA Finals over the first two games of this series. Remember, coming into this series the belief by the general public was that this matchup boiled down to a team in the Boston Celtics that had the far superior depth and overall talent, while the Dallas Mavericks had the best two players on the floor at any given moment, in Irving and Doncic. While Doncic has lived up to that billing the first two games of these finals, Irving has struggled mightily. Not only has he not been one of the best two players on the floor, he’s arguably not been even a top eight player on the floor.
As mentioned, Irving has yet to make a three-pointer in this series, while his overall shooting numbers haven’t been all that much better, knocking down just 35% of his overall shots from the floor. He’s averaging just 14 points per game, 4 assists, 2.5 rebounds, and 2.5 turnovers. Keep in mind, this is a guy making 40 million dollars a year on his current deal with the Mavericks. That same Mavericks organization also decided not to extend Jalen Brunson for an additional four years on a deal that would’ve cost them just under 14 million per year. Not only did Jalen Brunson leave the Mavericks following the rejection of that extension, but he also went on to become a superstar in New York. He also leads the NBA Playoffs in scoring on a points per game basis. Thus, the Mavericks gave up a guy who (almost without argument) is a better player than Kyrie Irving, for a third of the cost of Irving, and they did so with the belief that Irving’s overall skillset, along with his championship experience, would help bring the Mavericks organization an NBA Title. They clearly brought Irving in for this exact moment, and now with all the chips on the table, he’s disappeared in the worst way possible. If the Mavs want any shot at getting back in this series, they need Kyrie Irving to wake up in a hurry, and they need him to stay awake for the remainder of this series. Another 15 point, subpar shooting night from Irving could easily mean the end of the road for this Mavs playoff run.
Thus, it’s clear the Mavericks need to shoot the ball better from the three-point line, and they need Kyrie Irving to play at a superstar level in order to make this a series. However, if they do those two things, will it be enough for the Mavs to win? Assuming Luka Doncic continues playing at the level he has been the first two games, it’s a resounding yes. That said, there are a few things Doncic needs to clean up. Despite being a phenomenally skilled player, Doncic has had his troubles at the free throw line at times throughout his career. Unfortunately, those struggles have reared their ugly head at the worst possible time here in the NBA Finals. Doncic is just 6 for 13 from the free throw line through the first two games of the series. That included a 4/8 outing in game 2, in a game the Mavs lost by just 7 points. Doncic is too skilled and too good of a shooter to be shooting below 50% from the free throw line. It’s clearly a mental issue that needs to be resolved quickly.
In addition to the free throw woes, Doncic also needs to clean up the turnovers. The way Doncic plays, which includes a significant amount of freedom and risk, he is going to turn the ball over a couple of times every game, and the Mavericks can live with that when he’s also recording double digit assists. However, game 2 included more than “a couple” turnovers, with Doncic giving it away 8 times. The Mavericks are 3-3 in playoff games this postseason when Doncic turns the ball over 5 or more times, and 1-2 when he turns it over 7 or more times, with the lone win in those contests coming by a single point over OKC in game 6 of the Western Conference Semis. When Doncic turns it over 5 or fewer times, the Mavericks are 9-4 in these playoffs. Luka is going to make some mistakes, and as mentioned before the Mavericks are okay with that. However, cutting down the turnovers to under 5 is key to giving Dallas a legitimate shot to win. Additionally, Doncic needs to limit the live ball turnovers, which have plagued him so far in this series. The dead ball turnovers, where the Mavericks don’t get a shot, but do get to then set their defense are survivable. However, the back breakers are the turnovers where he’s either losing the ball while dribbling at half court or having passes picked off and going the other way for layups. The Mavericks conceded 21 points to Boston off turnovers in game 2, while only turning 11 Boston turnovers into 12 points themselves; a nine point difference in a game the Mavericks lost by 7.
The Mavericks are not out of this series by any means, but the window of opportunity is quickly closing. When you play in the Western Conference, getting to an NBA Finals can be an incredibly difficult thing to accomplish, and the Mavericks do not want to squander this opportunity. The idea of, “there’s always next year,” can be a very dangerous belief. There’s never a guarantee that a team will be back. All that said, if Dallas can clean up a few things as they head back home to American Airlines Arena, they will absolutely have a realistic shot to win the next two games. Keep in mind, the last team to fall down 0-2 in an NBA Finals did comeback to win the series. The 2021 Milwaukee Bucks dropped both games 1 and 2 at the Phoenix Suns, before rattling off 4 straight wins on their way to an NBA Title. Can the Dallas Mavericks find a way to do the same? We will all find out over the next week, but one thing is for sure: if they are going to do it, they’re going to need Luca Doncic and Kyrie Irving to be special.
